More questions, the greater likelihood of losing
Monday, May 25th, 2009A new “study,” if you want to call it that, has been made public which concludes that those appellate advocates who have more questions thrown at them by the judges on a given panel stand a much more substantial likelihood of losing. Actually, this study is simply a batch of anecdotal conclusions generated by a young lawyer up in D.C. who decided to sit down and track the number of questions put to a lawyer appearing before the Supreme Court. She then tabulated who won or lost as the case may be. That side grappling with the greater number of questions lost nearly twice as often as the other side. But she only looked at a handful of cases.
When Chief Jusice Roberts heard about this, he did his own bit of research. Since he was a very busy advocate before the Court, having argued over thirty cases before the high court, he was in a unique position of falling back on his own experience as well as looking at hard numbers. And yet, with the increased number of cases at his disposal, he came to the same conclusion. The lawyer who finds that he or she is having to deal with more questions than the other side can expect to lose. It’s that simple. And then of course, you have to consider the kind of questions and the language incorporated within those questions. And that’s exactly what some professors have done by looking at some 2,000 arguments and perhaps 200,000 questions.
The professors reviewed the content of the questions, looking for friendly words and phrases and that language which they termed hostile or skeptical. Again, their findings only echoed that of the young lawyer and C.J. Roberts’s conclusions. The theory isn’t simply that the sheer number of questions decides who wins or loses. Rather, it goes deeper. It’s indicative of the mind-set of the judges and what they are thinking, even before the appellate lawyer opens his mouth. The judges have already come to some kind of conclusion and are using the questioning process to win over who they see as holdout votes on the panel. They are simply using the lawyers and the interrogation process as a blackboard to persuade other judges to come over to their side.
Some experts have concluded that if this preliminary research really holds water, then the key to a successful appeal - that is, either keeping your judgment intact or getting it reversed - is maneuvering the appeal and drafting the brief so that the other side is the one that gets hammered and you sit pretty. It all sounds good and so easy but getting to that point where you can sit down with confidence before the panel or the court en banc with the smug satisfaction that you have set up your opponent for failure would take, I would think, some real Machiavellian finesse. Besides, I don’t need a study to know that if I’m the one getting pounded, whether it be by a “friendly” Amarillo appeals court panel, the stoic, stone-faced Court of Criminal Appeals or a Fifth Circuit panel made up Judges Jolly and Edith Jones, I know my fate and that of my client’s.